Economist of the Year – informing business and investment decisions

The BMR / Unisa Economist of the Year Competition takes centre stage in economic thinking and growth projections. Earlier this year, Elize Kruger was declared the winner of the 2023 BMR/Unisa Economist of the Year Competition.

95
Economist of the Year, Elize Kruger.

The Bureau of Market Research (Pty) Ltd (BMR) and the University of South Africa (Unisa) have been hosting the Economist of the Year Competition since 2022. The winner and two runners-up of the 2023 BMR/Unisa Economist of the Year competition were announced at an awards ceremony held in Pretoria on 20 June 2024.

The winner of the 2023 competition is Ms Elize Kruger, an independent economist. Ms Kruger has nearly three decades of experience in both macro and microeconomic analyses and forecasts. She has worked in the financial, health, transport and energy sectors.

As an independent economist, she provides consulting services to a wide variety of clients, compiling forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators and publishing in-depth reports, while also delivering frequent media commentary and research briefs on important economic events. Although Ms Kruger has participated in the competition for several years, this is the first time she has won after she was a runner-up in the 2022 competition.

The two runners-up of the 2023 competition are Dawie Klopper, a financial advisor and investment economist at PSG Wealth, and Jee-A van der Linde, a senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa.

Overall, the three top economists provided the most accurate and consistent forecasts for eight economic variables during 2023. More than 30 of South Africa’s top economists participated in the competition. 

Runners-up

Informing business and investment decisions

The Economist of the Year Competition was hosted for several decades by Media24. In 2021 Media24 decided to relinquish this prestigious competition due to company restructuring and operational changes.

The Bureau of Market Research (Pty) Ltd (BMR) was approached by Media24 to take over the competition. Due to the prestigious nature of the competition, the transfer of the ownership of the competition to the BMR was supported by renowned economists who have competed in the event on an annual basis for many years. The key rationale for the support for the continuance of the competition was that the competition had for long occupied the centre stage of economic thinking and growth projections in the country.

Enter the BMR

Recognising the value of the competition, the BMR agreed to take ownership of the competition from the start of 2022. To sustain the traction of competition, the BMR commenced by setting up the required management and administrative systems to host the Economist of the Year (EoY) Competition. Given the strategic position of the BMR in the Unisa Corporate Group structure, the Unisa Executive Management Committee in 2022 adopted the co-branding of the Economist of the Year (EoY) Competition.

Thus, ever since 2022, the EoY trademark has collectively been co-branded by the BMR and Unisa in support of sustainable development and to promote economic growth, predictions and debates in South Africa. On average, a total of 35 of the top economists in South Africa have participated in the competition each year since 2022.

Forecast variables

The panel of economists who enter the competition are requested on a monthly basis to submit their forecasts with respect to eight economic variables, namely:

  • Real annual GDP growth rate
  • Real annual household expenditure growth rate
  • Average annual inflation rate
  • Average yield on long-term government bonds in the fourth quarter
  • Average prime interest rate in the fourth quarter
  • Average R/$ exchange rate in the fourth quarter
  • Average Brent oil price in the fourth quarter
  • Annual current account balance as % of GDP

Competition logistics

Since 2022 the BMR has taken ownership of the EoY competition being governed, managed and operated as follows:

  • Monthly engagements with the participating economists. Requesting the competing economists to submit updated economic forecasts on a monthly basis.
  • Collating and analysing the monthly forecasts. The forecasts obtained each month are collated and analysed to determine “consensus” scores on all eight forecasted variables.
  • Adjudication of the competition. An independent adjudication panel consolidates the economic forecasts each month and identifies a winner and two runners-up for the year based on a scientific formula. These individuals’ monthly predictions consistently vary the least from the actual annual economic data published in the March issues of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Quarterly Bulletin.
  • Celebrating the competition and appointing a winner. The winner and two runners-up of the competition are announced during a prize-giving ceremony in the following year.
  • Preparing monthly competition and competition-winner press releases. Press releases are issued to the media for publication on a monthly basis as well as following the announcement of the top three economists.

The value of the competition to the economy and society

The timely predictions for the leading economic indicators by the Economist of the Year competition serve to provide economic forecasts of greatest likelihood, which are of great value in informing business and investment decisions in South Africa.

Also, the relevance of the Economist of the Year Competition is soundly routed in Goal 8 of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals, which aims to promote sustainable economic growth. Sustained and inclusive economic growth is a prerequisite for sustainable development, which can contribute to improved livelihoods for people.

Economic growth can lead to new and better employment opportunities and provide greater economic security for all. Moreover, rapid growth, especially among the least-developed and developing countries, can help reduce the wage gap relative to developed countries, thereby diminishing glaring inequalities between the rich and poor.